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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 4, 2011 9:48:41 GMT -5
Predicting this election may be the hardest task of all.
Honestly, as I have said hundreds of times, all the stars must align for a GOP win in the Borough. Those stars include; low voter turnout, a crappy democrat candidate who is personally unpopular, state-wide and national republican ascendancy, a strong GOP candidate, and a well run, retail political campaign.
Under those circumstances, conditions exist where a republican can win. All of those conditions happening together is rare, and even when they do, republicans face a strong voter disadvantage in Freehold Borough that is tough to top.
This year, there is another wild-card that could prove interesting. With Mayor Wilson stepping down, the very likable and very popular Nolan Higgins leads the ticket for the Dems. At first blush, this would be devastating to the GOP. However, Nolan is uncontested. As such, he has not had to mount a strong campaign and push to get out votes. This helps the GOP. In addition, no one pushed the machine apparatus harder than Mayor Wilson, and he knew all the levers to pull. Moreover, he pulled them, pushed them, and played the political game far better than most understood. That type of effort and expertise is missing from the top of the ticket, and that again inures to the benefit of the GOP.
What hurts the GOP still is that enormous numbers of voters will vote for Higgins, and in so doing they will stay party line. party line jumpers are not huge in number, and last year we saw what happens when only a hundred to 150 sophisticated voters jump. That causes mixed results in a very close race.
The GOP has picked a strong, balanced ticket. In Maryanne Earle they have a big name, a strong Freehold name, and a credible, smart, talented Candidate. Her running mate, likewise, is an excellent candidate and well known and liked in the community.
I have no idea what type of retail, door-to-door campaign has been run in Freehold -- and that makes all the difference.
I do know that the democrat side includes Mike DiBenedetto. Mike is about as much a real democrat as I am. He is well liked, and while I hope this doesn’t hurt his political chances, he is a friend of mine. He is as old Freehold as one gets, and as honest as the day is long. His spot on the ticket presents a significant hurdle for the GOP to perfectly align all conditions necessary to win.
His running mate is Mr. Schnurr. I don’t know Mr. Schnurr. He use to be a Freehold Voice regular poster under the name Geo before being selected for office by the Mayor. Once selected, he quit the site and tried erase every post and opinion he ever posted. That alone made him suspect to me. I know that he is not old Freehold, and I know that he is not universally loved. In many ways, he presents as the perfect candidate in an all GOP year to get knocked off. Having said that, he is a smart guy, and I do hear that he has been working very hard on the retail politics side.
So – what does all this mean prediction wise?
I see turnout as low.
I see a GOP tide nationally and state-wide.
I see a strong but unmotivated top of the Dem ticket.
I see weaker than normal dem turnout and a sliding dem advantage with Freehold’s demographic change.
I see more independents breaking for the GOP than usual.
I see the following in votes:
Higgins – 1287
DiBenedetto – 738
Earle – 725
Clayton -- 713
Schurr – 688
These numbers are only possible with a low overall voter turnout, and of course, an assumed lower than normal hard D turnout. They likewise assume a low independent turnout with most independents breaking toward the GOP. A high GOP turnout should be expected, and is of course, critically necessary. Should turnout numbers overall beat my projects significantly, Schnurr could squeak ahead of the two GOP candidates.
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Post by admin on Nov 7, 2011 9:06:42 GMT -5
Predictions are fun. I would say yours are ball park, Rich. I will be very surprised if this race is not a nail biter. We all know it is very difficult for a republican to win, let alone two. But, I think this year there is a very good shot at seeing both republicans win. I have never seen the local republican party this good and they have kept the democrats on the defense this year to the point that the democrats are running away from their own record. Rich, I wish you were here to see it more close up, but these republicans have been far more focused, aggressive and organized than in past years.
I will predict that the republicans win every district except the heavily democrat district 5.
I do agree that Mike D is tough to beat. I have never hear a bad word uttered about the man. ( I cant say the same about George, many people have rotten things to say about him) I think with Mike D it comes down to the fact that he has been there for so long. The question for voters will be if they think things are as good as they can be or do they want change? Beating Mike D comes down to issues.
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Post by johnfnewman on Nov 8, 2011 0:06:27 GMT -5
The statistics of elections are very interesting. This election cycle is historically a low voter turnout. What I find interested is that the cycles and turnouts are fairly consistent.
For example, the past 2 presidential elections have virtually the same turnout in the borough. I would have thought that the historic Obama election would have brought out a significantly higher number of voters, but not so. The turnout was 70.76% of registered voters, just slightly about the prior Bush-Kerry election year of 70.00% of registered voters.
The past three gubernatorial elections yielded:
47.78% in 2009;
47.94% in 2005; and
48.20% in 2001.
(The numbers I use are % of registered voters.) The difference here is .42% over the three gubernatorial elections.
a higher variable race is when the senate is the top ticket (with no governor or pres. race).
44.03% in 2006;
40.97% in 2002.
The last time that there was the congressional race as the highest ticket in the past ten years, was only last year.
41.14% in 2010.
Perhaps this is comparable to a cycle when there is just a senatorial race.
AND THE LAST TWO TIMES WHEN THE MAYORAL TICKET WAS UP, and likewise no congressional, no federal senate, no presidential, no governor up for election. It seems that the mayor is usually up in off years.
37.91% in 2007; and
36.37% in 2003.
This is historically the lowest turnout race out of any November election.
There are roughly 5,100 registered voters in the borough (I may be off by as much as 50), based on the two past mayoral elections, the turnout range is 1,855 (36.27% of 5,100) to 1934 (37.91% of 5,100 registered voters).
Now those numbers are the total turnout numbers. The number of people who actually vote for one or both council candidates is another matter. Some people won't care about this election and won't vote for council or mayoral elections. So, the turnout for this race is even lower than the numbers I just provided. 950 votes could win the election for a candidate.
As to candidates, in the 2008 election, Schnurr received almost 10% less votes than his running mate. On the other side, there was a 1.5% difference between the two candidates. Assuming that one election is typical, he is the week candidate. If he receives 10% less than his running mate this year he probably loses.
Of course, I fully support Earle/Clayton ticket. There are many many reasons why I do NOT support the democrats. Regardless, Marianne and Don have been out hard working, going door to door and educating themselves on the issues. They will make great councilpersons. I do not think the other side has been working as hard, and I think the results will show their determination.
My prediction is a republican 2 seat council victory.
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Post by ess0350 on Nov 8, 2011 2:21:34 GMT -5
Given the numbers stated above regarding historical voter turnout in the Boro, it is sad to me that so few exercise their right and a chance to make a difference by voting. I do wonder if apathy in the Boro might be a contributing factor in low turnout. I must say the Republican Party ran a very strong and aggressive campaign, much more so in the past. I have seen a good deal more literature this election season from the Republicans than the Democrats. I encoutered Mr. Schnurr walking my street and knocking on doors. I stopped and said hello, he offered me a flyer, introduced himself and named his running mates. He said he would be on my side of the street in about 15 minutes to talk to me about their platform. I replied to him well you can speak to me now which he declined to do. I suppose he realized that I must have been a registered Republican or an Independent, he never did stop at my house and believe me I waited. I was curious as to what he had to say. It did leave me to wonder why the gentleman didn't want to speak with me when I encountered him on the street. I would think a candidate going door to door would stop and speak to someone who approached him. I did not identify myself or my party affiliation with him. With that said, I have seen a large number of Earle/Clayton lawn signs and they were put up well before the Democratic candidate's signs. I have received more door hangers,mailings and door to door campaigning from the Republican Party than I have seen from the Democrats. I was originally registered as an Independent until a year ago. Even as an Independent, I have never received any election literature or door to door campaigning from the Democratic Party and I had from the Republican Party in the past. Granted I have always voted Republican, even as an Independent. I am very impressed with the Freehold Boro Republican Party and proud of how they have run their campaign and have addressed issues that affect our town. I do support the Earle/Clayton ticket as well Councilman Newman. I do see a Republican victory for this election given that business as usual has not worked in the past, we have very strong candidates who are aware of the concerns of many residents, they listened and explained their platform eloquently. They have addressed concerns head-on in a refreshing manner with genuine interest. Best of luck to Marianne Earle and Don Clayton. Say no to the status quo.
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Post by lisas84 on Nov 8, 2011 8:17:58 GMT -5
ESS, you are so right about the apathy; it's all over. I don't think anyone can ever figure that one out!
As many people know, I live in the 'ship. The campaign season here sounds like feeble crickets; as usual, though, the Republicans have made attempts and the Dems have been like a fart in a windstorm.
You guys in the borough are, in my opinion, blessed to have five people who are willing to make the sacrifice to serve, are out there actively campaigning and showing their passions for what they believe in; they have made admirable efforts to communicate their convictions and stances. As far as I'm concerned, no matter what the final numbers are -- there will be no losers.
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Post by ess0350 on Nov 8, 2011 10:05:09 GMT -5
The Republican party in the Boro has done a wonderful job with reorganizing the Republican Club and getting the word out. They have made concentrated efforts to recruit new members by having several events and promoting themselves by several venues including social media. It is amazing how well they have reorganized so quickly in a small amount of time. The leadership has been very dedicated with promoting the club and recruiting members and making candidates available on different occasions to introduce them to the public. They have chosen well qualified candidates as well as really coming together for a common cause. Kudos to the Freehold Boro Republican Club.
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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 8, 2011 10:23:56 GMT -5
AND THE LAST TWO TIMES WHEN THE MAYORAL TICKET WAS UP, and likewise no congressional, no federal senate, no presidential, no governor up for election. It seems that the mayor is usually up in off years. 37.91% in 2007; and 36.37% in 2003. This is historically the lowest turnout race out of any November election. There are roughly 5,100 registered voters in the borough (I may be off by as much as 50), based on the two past mayoral elections, the turnout range is 1,855 (36.27% of 5,100) to 1934 (37.91% of 5,100 registered voters). Now those numbers are the total turnout numbers. The number of people who actually vote for one or both council candidates is another matter. Some people won't care about this election and won't vote for council or mayoral elections. So, the turnout for this race is even lower than the numbers I just provided. 950 votes could win the election for a candidate. As to candidates, in the 2008 election, Schnurr received almost 10% less votes than his running mate. On the other side, there was a 1.5% difference between the two candidates. Assuming that one election is typical, he is the week candidate. If he receives 10% less than his running mate this year he probably loses. Yes sir -- my prediction is based on an historically low turnout -- driven by dem apathy and no politcal driver at the top of the Mayoral ticket. I think if you break 950 votes in this election, the GOP is not likely to win. I think my vote count is probably too low -- but once we break 850 in this cycle it will be precarious for the GOP. I think we all agree Councilman Schnurr has the potential to be the low vote person. |
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Post by ess0350 on Nov 8, 2011 13:48:38 GMT -5
I do not think Councilman Schnurr will win in this election given strong Republican efforts. As someone who attends a great number of council meetings, it has been my impression that Councilman Schnurr as well the boro attorney have alienated the general public with comments and stances they have taken. I am not "slamming" either person, just my humble opinion based on my observations. I have not been impressed with their actions in the past.
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Post by admin on Nov 8, 2011 17:04:18 GMT -5
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Post by lisas84 on Nov 8, 2011 21:42:26 GMT -5
Ess and Brian, sorry for your predictions not coming true. But they were certainly close and for a reason. Unlike the township folks, all of your candidates were campaigning diligently.
Let us look at how the 'ship stacks up, thanks to Brian's post above:
REP - David Salkin 3,585 31.29%
REP - Eugene Golub 3,343 29.17%
DEM - Edward Horigan 2,253 19.66%
DEM - Jennie Jeannette 'JJ' Mistretta 2,255 19.68%
Write-In 23 0.20%
Total 11,459 100.00%
First of all, really sucky turnout and perhaps the 'ship was listing in the doldrums, it appears. Second of all, the incumbents seem to have won pretty big, and the challengers really were losers. Bright idea for 2012: host a meet and greet at Raintree clubhouse (why didn't any of them think of this?). For the record, I voted for my incumbents.
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Post by lisas84 on Nov 8, 2011 22:23:29 GMT -5
Thanks for this post, Brian. You gotta check the Keyport race out -- this one surely created the need for Clorox on the ole tighty whities for both dudes: Borough Council Keyport Boro (1Yr Unexpired) REP - Warren J. Chamberlain 731 49.80% DEM - Kenneth McPeek 736 50.14% |
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Post by johnfnewman on Nov 10, 2011 11:40:12 GMT -5
I don't have the numbers of how many registered voters actually voted or how may were registered at time of the election, but I think that this year's turnout was even lower than the past two mayoral elections. probably closer to 34%.
My prediction that George would received 10% less votes than his running mate was correct - he received slightly over 10% less votes than Mike D. There was a significant amount of "under votes" which may explain that: 117. As to the meaning of "under votes," in our Freehold Borough case, it is when someone doesn't vote for the 2 of 2 council choices, but vote for just 1 or none.
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