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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 2, 2010 9:54:01 GMT -5
last year -- my prediction was really off. (The previous year -- i was pretty darn good.)
Last year was a very strange year. NJ had a major race at the top of the ticket driving anti-incumbency. On the local ticket, one of the dem candidates had VERY high negatives and history in both parties.
To top things off, the GOP ran a great candidate who worked very hard.
With all things aligning, it was a close race.
The key factor, however, in the race, was the Statewide push back against Corzine and the incumbents. Indeed, races usually lost by 350-450 votes became 30-40 vote races.
This year -- the anti-incumbent/anti-democrat fervor is even bigger -- but more on a National level. Will that translate to local votes? That's a huge question.
Local considerations. The dems are running two well-known and well-liked candidates. Mr. Sims was the big vote getter, and he will turn out a key democrat constituency, the African-American vote.
The Dems were much better organized this year, and running a campaign based on the fear that they could lose. This made for a lean, well-run, well-organized campaign. This will win them more votes.
The GOP appears to be running a stealth campaign. Their presence has been understated on the boards, and around town. However, sources tell me they have had multiple meet and greets, and have been walking key districts talking to voters.
The candidates break down as follows -- in my personal view.
1. Ms. Lichardi -- She is well known, involved in school activities, and thought well of among the people with whom I have spoken. I do not know her.
2. Ted Miller -- He is running a third time -- and that is by every political measure the last time a candidate can run consecutively in a race in one town. (Some say two) He is a party chair, and he is viewed as a party chair. This means, he is viewed as a partisan. he has worked hard in the town, and certainly name recognition is not a problem.
All things being equal, a distinct advantage goes to Sims/Kane on the local candidate analysis piece.
Against this backdrop -- and recognizing that the primary driver of this election is national politics on an epic scale, the race will be closer than the normal GOP v. Dem race in the Borough.
I see it as follows:
1227 Sims
1184 Kane
1103 Lichardi
1057 Miller
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Post by Mike Rosseel on Nov 2, 2010 9:58:58 GMT -5
last year -- my prediction was really off. (The previous year -- i was pretty darn good.) Last year was a very strange year. NJ had a major race at the top of the ticket driving anti-incumbency. On the local ticket, one of the dem candidates had VERY high negatives and history in both parties. To top things off, the GOP ran a great candidate who worked very hard. With all things aligning, it was a close race. The key factor, however, in the race, was the Statewide push back against Corzine and the incumbents. Indeed, races usually lost by 350-450 votes became 30-40 vote races. This year -- the anti-incumbent/anti-democrat fervor is even bigger -- but more on a National level. Will that translate to local votes? That's a huge question. Local considerations. The dems are running two well-known and well-liked candidates. Mr. Sims was the big vote getter, and he will turn out a key democrat constituency, the African-American vote. The Dems were much better organized this year, and running a campaign based on the fear that they could lose. This made for a lean, well-run, well-organized campaign. This will win them more votes. The GOP appears to be running a stealth campaign. Their presence has been understated on the boards, and around town. However, sources tell me they have had multiple meet and greets, and have been walking key districts talking to voters. The candidates break down as follows -- in my personal view. 1. Ms. Lichardi -- She is well known, involved in school activities, and thought well of among the people with whom I have spoken. I do not know her. 2. Ted Miller -- He is running a third time -- and that is by every political measure the last time a candidate can run consecutively in a race in one town. (Some say two) He is a party chair, and he is viewed as a party chair. This means, he is viewed as a partisan. he has worked hard in the town, and certainly name recognition is not a problem. All things being equal, a distinct advantage goes to Sims/Kane on the local candidate analysis piece. Against this backdrop -- and recognizing that the primary driver of this election is national politics on an epic scale, the race will be closer than the normal GOP v. Dem race in the Borough. I see it as follows: 1227 Sims 1184 Kane 1103 Lichardi 1057 Miller Rich I like your above post! Still have that jacket ready for ya!! lol Prediction Sims- 1270 Kane- 1225 Lichardi- 720 Miller- 665 Lets see what happens! |
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Post by lisas84 on Nov 2, 2010 10:32:24 GMT -5
Correction, Rich: this is Miller's fourth year running.
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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 2, 2010 11:30:59 GMT -5
Correction, Rich: this is Miller's fourth year running. Yikes -- 4th year. Even I lost track. |
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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 2, 2010 14:08:55 GMT -5
last year -- my prediction was really off. (The previous year -- i was pretty darn good.) Last year was a very strange year. NJ had a major race at the top of the ticket driving anti-incumbency. On the local ticket, one of the dem candidates had VERY high negatives and history in both parties. To top things off, the GOP ran a great candidate who worked very hard. With all things aligning, it was a close race. The key factor, however, in the race, was the Statewide push back against Corzine and the incumbents. Indeed, races usually lost by 350-450 votes became 30-40 vote races. This year -- the anti-incumbent/anti-democrat fervor is even bigger -- but more on a National level. Will that translate to local votes? That's a huge question. Local considerations. The dems are running two well-known and well-liked candidates. Mr. Sims was the big vote getter, and he will turn out a key democrat constituency, the African-American vote. The Dems were much better organized this year, and running a campaign based on the fear that they could lose. This made for a lean, well-run, well-organized campaign. This will win them more votes. The GOP appears to be running a stealth campaign. Their presence has been understated on the boards, and around town. However, sources tell me they have had multiple meet and greets, and have been walking key districts talking to voters. The candidates break down as follows -- in my personal view. 1. Ms. Lichardi -- She is well known, involved in school activities, and thought well of among the people with whom I have spoken. I do not know her. 2. Ted Miller -- He is running a third time -- and that is by every political measure the last time a candidate can run consecutively in a race in one town. (Some say two) He is a party chair, and he is viewed as a party chair. This means, he is viewed as a partisan. he has worked hard in the town, and certainly name recognition is not a problem. All things being equal, a distinct advantage goes to Sims/Kane on the local candidate analysis piece. Against this backdrop -- and recognizing that the primary driver of this election is national politics on an epic scale, the race will be closer than the normal GOP v. Dem race in the Borough. I see it as follows: 1227 Sims 1184 Kane 1103 Lichardi 1057 Miller Careless -- simply careless on my part. See my statistical analysis of the 2007 election. (reply 6) freeholdvoice.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=republican&action=display&thread=1263There is no way -- none -- that enough voters will turn out to make my above prediction work. (This is what happens when you don't do the work.) I think the winner of this race will carry 900 votes or more. Here is my updated prediction: Sims: 906 Kane: 804 Lichardi: 765 Miller: 712 Same reasoning -- different numbers based on actual likely turnout and I disagreeumptions on independents. |
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Post by lisas84 on Nov 2, 2010 14:22:48 GMT -5
Rich, just curious. Why do you have Lichardi getting more votes than Miller, when more people know who he is?
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BrianSullivan
Full Member
Good ideas never cross burned bridges. Practice unity in our community
Posts: 1,041
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Post by BrianSullivan on Nov 2, 2010 15:47:42 GMT -5
last year -- my prediction was really off. (The previous year -- i was pretty darn good.) Last year was a very strange year. NJ had a major race at the top of the ticket driving anti-incumbency. On the local ticket, one of the dem candidates had VERY high negatives and history in both parties. To top things off, the GOP ran a great candidate who worked very hard. With all things aligning, it was a close race. The key factor, however, in the race, was the Statewide push back against Corzine and the incumbents. Indeed, races usually lost by 350-450 votes became 30-40 vote races. This year -- the anti-incumbent/anti-democrat fervor is even bigger -- but more on a National level. Will that translate to local votes? That's a huge question. Local considerations. The dems are running two well-known and well-liked candidates. Mr. Sims was the big vote getter, and he will turn out a key democrat constituency, the African-American vote. The Dems were much better organized this year, and running a campaign based on the fear that they could lose. This made for a lean, well-run, well-organized campaign. This will win them more votes. The GOP appears to be running a stealth campaign. Their presence has been understated on the boards, and around town. However, sources tell me they have had multiple meet and greets, and have been walking key districts talking to voters. The candidates break down as follows -- in my personal view. 1. Ms. Lichardi -- She is well known, involved in school activities, and thought well of among the people with whom I have spoken. I do not know her. 2. Ted Miller -- He is running a third time -- and that is by every political measure the last time a candidate can run consecutively in a race in one town. (Some say two) He is a party chair, and he is viewed as a party chair. This means, he is viewed as a partisan. he has worked hard in the town, and certainly name recognition is not a problem. All things being equal, a distinct advantage goes to Sims/Kane on the local candidate analysis piece. Against this backdrop -- and recognizing that the primary driver of this election is national politics on an epic scale, the race will be closer than the normal GOP v. Dem race in the Borough. I see it as follows: 1227 Sims 1184 Kane 1103 Lichardi 1057 Miller Careless -- simply careless on my part. See my statistical analysis of the 2007 election. (reply 6) freeholdvoice.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=republican&action=display&thread=1263There is no way -- none -- that enough voters will turn out to make my above prediction work. (This is what happens when you don't do the work.) I think the winner of this race will carry 900 votes or more. Here is my updated prediction: Sims: 906 Kane: 804 Lichardi: 765 Miller: 712 Same reasoning -- different numbers based on actual likely turnout and I disagreeumptions on independents. I lover predictions, it is the fun part. I agree with your breakdown on the whole. If there is any race, it will be between Kane and Linda. There are X factors too, that might play in. It was a hot year for the council. Lots of meetings with unhappy people. Depending on how people's memories are and where they stood issue to issue, there could be things we cannot predict. For now, here is the link we will all be watching later. co.monmouth.nj.us/electionresults/Election%20Result_dtl.htm |
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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 2, 2010 17:45:42 GMT -5
Rich, just curious. Why do you have Lichardi getting more votes than Miller, when more people know who he is? Well -- running 4 straight years does give you name recognition -- however, it dramatically increases your negatives. In addition, the job of party boss is one that necessarily creates partisanship -- which could hurt him in a small town. Again, these are simply theories. |
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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 2, 2010 17:49:58 GMT -5
Rich, just curious. Why do you have Lichardi getting more votes than Miller, when more people know who he is? Well -- running 4 straight years does give you name recognition -- however, it dramatically increases your negatives. In addition, the job of party boss is one that necessarily creates partisanship -- which could hurt him in a small town. Again, these are simply theories. BTW -- I would probably change this if Miller is lined up on the ballot with Kane. I think if it is Sims v. Lichardi on the ballot -- she will bear the brunt and Miller will pick up dropped votes. I did not see the sample ballot -- so I don't know. |
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Post by lisas84 on Nov 2, 2010 17:54:38 GMT -5
Rich, just curious. Why do you have Lichardi getting more votes than Miller, when more people know who he is? Well -- running 4 straight years does give you name recognition -- however, it dramatically increases your negatives. In addition, the job of party boss is one that necessarily creates partisanship -- which could hurt him in a small town. Again, these are simply theories. Thanks, Rich! Now, why would the name recognition dramatically increase negative perception? |
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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 2, 2010 20:36:14 GMT -5
Well -- running 4 straight years does give you name recognition -- however, it dramatically increases your negatives. In addition, the job of party boss is one that necessarily creates partisanship -- which could hurt him in a small town. Again, these are simply theories. Thanks, Rich! Now, why would the name recognition dramatically increase negative perception? If you lose 3 straight elections --- you get name recognition and name association. That is, your name is associated with losing and not serious candidate. That is why running more than 2 years in a row in a jurisdiction is usually not the best move. |
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