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Post by richardkelsey on Oct 29, 2009 15:54:21 GMT -5
Okay -- I do this every year. It is part statistical -- in fact, it is very formulaic -- but it requires me to make general assumptions about turnout as a general matter, and turnout among registered voters by party -- that is more art than science.
Since I don't have a feel for what is happening on the Ground in Jersey -- or Freehold -- this is a bit of a swag.
Here is goes --and my apologies to all the hard-working candidates. Elections are about numbers, and in Freehold the numbers don't lie.
I predict an overall turnout of 46-49%
Results
Shutzer -- 1332-1475
Le Vine -- 1304-1422
Newman -- 923-1055
Miller -- 894- 996
I predict a higher percentage of Republicans will turnout then Dems -- probably much higher. Dems, however, hold a 2-1 advantage in registered voters. Registered dems will, therefore, still out-number registered republicans in raw numbers.
Registered Dems will vote in a slightly higher percentage for their own party. Normally, they would vote for a much higher percentage, than Republicans, but this is a down year for Dems, and some blue-dog dems will cross.
Independents outnumber both parties, and tend to vote with the dems about 60-40. They will turnout in a lower percentage, but their sheer size will make them the largest group in raw numbers.
Here is where my numbers could change. I dropped independents to 55% for dems. (Turnout at only 33% of registered dems) If there is action on the ground -- that is -- an anti-incumbent feeling, or some top of the ticket movement away from dems, that could bring more independents out, and it could change the voting pattern to the GOP getting a slight edge from that group.
If that happens, the number could squeeze.
My guess is dems fear that more than it is likely to happen. That is, dems don't feel great about dems right now, and Corzine doesn't excite anyone but the opposition -- but in the end, the statistical superiority, the established machine politics and political apparatus, make the challengers at a very strong disadvantage.
In the Miller/Newman analysis -- it was hard. The new guy usually doesn't top the established candidate -- but running a third time can cut two ways. Sometimes the numbers go up and get you over the top, other times the number keep sinking after the second run.
I think Shutzer will out-perform Marc. Sharon has roots across some very deep components of town. She is high profile, but not as much of a lightening rod.
For my own amusement -- I will pick an actual final tally rather than just a range.
Shutzer -- 1391
Le Vine -- 1331
Newman -- 978
Miller -- 953
Surprise me Freehold.
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Post by admin on Oct 29, 2009 15:57:24 GMT -5
You were very accurate last year.
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Post by Mike Rosseel on Oct 29, 2009 16:23:00 GMT -5
Wow, im about to faint, but i kinda agree with rich kelsey.lol. I have taken numbers from the past and have the results that i think my happen on election day.
Levine- 1390
Shutzer-1380
Newman-890-930
miller-790-830
Lets see how it goes
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Post by admin on Oct 29, 2009 16:45:53 GMT -5
That makes three of us in agreement. I have said in the past that the GOP will probably never win a seat in this town regardless of who they run. The next political powerhouse will likely be left wing open borders types.
I did notice one thing about Rich and freehold Boy's predictions. Both of you gave Shutzer more votes than Levine. The last time they ran, le vine was the top vote getter.
The biggest thing that could make this election closer is the anti Corzine sentiment that is quite strong. If that plays out it could bring the numbers closer, but how much it benefits the locals is up in the air.
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Post by richardkelsey on Oct 30, 2009 9:19:21 GMT -5
That makes three of us in agreement. I have said in the past that the GOP will probably never win a seat in this town regardless of who they run. The next political powerhouse will likely be left wing open borders types. I did notice one thing about Rich and freehold Boy's predictions. Both of you gave Shutzer more votes than Levine. The last time they ran, le vine was the top vote getter. The biggest thing that could make this election closer is the anti Corzine sentiment that is quite strong. If that plays out it could bring the numbers closer, but how much it benefits the locals is up in the air. Brian -- you bring up a point with which I struggle. I just don't know enough about how real the anti-incumbent, anti-Corzine feeling is in NJ. I don't have my fingers on enough trusted data. I know that every year some political whiz claims NJ is in play -- and every year I accurately predict much larger margins of victory for Dems in NJ. I see Rasmussen has a poll with Christie ahead this week, and independents trending hard to Christie. I just don't see it happening. Obviously, if Christie wins, that will mean several major things. It will mean very, very, low Dem turnout. That is, core constituencies simply not excited and not willing to vote. it will also mean Large GOP turnout -- and a large turnout of independents with a huge break of independents for the GOP. Now -- is that possible -- sure. But the dems have many more voters and they can turn their voters out more easily, and have a better apparatus for doing so, particularly in urban areas. Secondly, while I think GOP turnout will be strong, very strong, the independents are the question mark. We are only one year removed from them swinging wildly to the Dems for President Obama. How far can they really swing back. If I had to guess, Corzine will win by 7.5%. Under 5 is possible, but so is 9-10% If Corzine wins by less than 3% -- that will bode well for republican candidates everywhere. If Corzine actually loses, that will mean that all moons and stars have aligned, and down ticket candidates in little towns could get a big boost from independents and low Dem turnout. I am very skeptical of this. My Borough prediction is based on my belief that Corzine will win by 6-7.5 percent, and no measurable ground shift will occur. (Though arguably, a dem incumbent Governor in deep blue Jersey should win by 10-12 points, all things being equal) On the local level, falling house prices and rising taxes never help incumbents, whether either is their fault or not. Combine that with anti-incumbent feelings, one party rule, and a possible upset at the top of the ticket -- the GOP could make this closer. Again - every star must align. You folks are on the ground there -- not me. I have little or no feel for how things are shifting and moving, if at all. That is why I stayed with a straight statistical analysis. |
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Post by admin on Oct 30, 2009 16:13:05 GMT -5
Rich,
I agree with you. Many republicans really hate it when I say that Corzine will win. Back when Christy had a large lead, i said he was going to lose. Yes, there is a big anti incumbent vibe out there, but that is the whole Christy campaign. ( I'm Not Corzine) I said early on he would fail to define himself in a way that would resonate with voters and he hasn't. Even the papers gave the first debate to Dagget. It is a crying shame because there are some great issues outside of taxes that Christy has failed to capitalize on such as Abbott and COAH, both hot button topics.
IMO, Christy is following the nation wide trend that we have seen in the GOP where they lack identity and do not connect with voters. In the end I believe the voter of NJ will simply stay with what they know and feel safe with, which even with low opinion numbers, will be Corzine.
The big drag on Christy is Dagget who is also showing what I am saying. If Christy was doing better with his campaign, Dagget would be back in single digits. Its all a shame because Corzine really needs to go. This state is hurting really bad because of him and his predecessor, McGreevey.
One last note about the Freehold election. From what I have been seeing, the local GOP is far more aggressive and organized than they have been in recent years. They even had a plane with a banner flying overhead last weekend. It will be interesting to see if it has an impact.
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dfx
Junior Member
Posts: 221
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Post by dfx on Oct 30, 2009 23:06:03 GMT -5
Admin -
As a site administrator, shouldn't you be impartial? (You can't claim to be - as you do in many of your posts - if you're openly claiming to root against any one party in the upcoming election.)
Food for thought...
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Post by admin on Oct 31, 2009 9:45:46 GMT -5
Admin - As a site administrator, shouldn't you be impartial? (You can't claim to be - as you do in many of your posts - if you're openly claiming to root against any one party in the upcoming election.) Food for thought... DFX, I am not sure if you are asking pertaining to this thread or in general. As of as this thread, I do not believe anything I wrote has been for support of one side or the other. I am commenting more on political and demographic realities. If anything, I think I may have been harder on the GOP in this one. Obviously, people will view that different depending on their own biases an perceptions. If you are talking about the site in general, I would rather not get into that discussion here. It deserves its own thread as opposed to taking this one off topic. With recent events I have thought about opening up a thread with my record of support of Dem/GOP both off site and on. I know a lot of people are questioning me and that is very fair. I have no problem with it. Th real reality is that I am simply pro Freehold and want the best for this town in any given issue. My record does back that up. I will say pertaining to this site, there are two basic things I have imposed on myself and followed pretty good. First, I always try to give site participants the last word. I will engage in some back and forth, but in the end I value hearing what people have to say and want them comfortable in doing so while here. I do not turn debates into a contest. The other rule I have imposed on myself is that I have never discussed who I vote for at the municipal level. I do at higher levels, but not the municipal. My discussions on the locals is far more issue to issue oriented than it is in support of one or the other. I have provide commentary that is complimentary and critical of both sides. I do not know if I answered anything for you, DFX, and I really do welcome your feedback,views, and suggestions. If you would like to continue this discussion in a thread of its own, I would welcome some civil discussion with you (or anyone). Giving people a place to express themselves is what this site is for. |
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dfx
Junior Member
Posts: 221
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Post by dfx on Oct 31, 2009 11:46:13 GMT -5
Admin -
You previously posted "If Christy was doing better with his campaign, Dagget would be back in single digits. Its all a shame because Corzine really needs to go. This state is hurting really bad because of him and his predecessor, McGreevey."
That doesn't look too impartial.
PS. I'm not posting in defense of Corzine, but rather to make a point...
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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 3, 2009 21:20:47 GMT -5
If Corzine wins by less than 3% -- that will bode well for republican candidates everywhere. If Corzine actually loses, that will mean that all moons and stars have aligned, and down ticket candidates in little towns could get a big boost from independents and low Dem turnout. I am very skeptical of this. My Borough prediction is based on my belief that Corzine will win by 6-7.5 percent, and no measurable ground shift will occur. (Though arguably, a dem incumbent Governor in deep blue Jersey should win by 10-12 points, all things being equal) On the local level, falling house prices and rising taxes never help incumbents, whether either is their fault or not. Combine that with anti-incumbent feelings, one party rule, and a possible upset at the top of the ticket -- the GOP could make this closer. Again - every star must align.You folks are on the ground there -- not me. I have little or no feel for how things are shifting and moving, if at all. That is why I stayed with a straight statistical analysis. Someone check the stars! |
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Post by admin on Nov 3, 2009 21:25:53 GMT -5
If Corzine wins by less than 3% -- that will bode well for republican candidates everywhere. If Corzine actually loses, that will mean that all moons and stars have aligned, and down ticket candidates in little towns could get a big boost from independents and low Dem turnout. I am very skeptical of this. My Borough prediction is based on my belief that Corzine will win by 6-7.5 percent, and no measurable ground shift will occur. (Though arguably, a dem incumbent Governor in deep blue Jersey should win by 10-12 points, all things being equal) On the local level, falling house prices and rising taxes never help incumbents, whether either is their fault or not. Combine that with anti-incumbent feelings, one party rule, and a possible upset at the top of the ticket -- the GOP could make this closer. Again - every star must align.You folks are on the ground there -- not me. I have little or no feel for how things are shifting and moving, if at all. That is why I stayed with a straight statistical analysis. Someone check the stars! Rich was wrong!? I am going to frame this. |
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