Hi Rich!
We already know how New Jersey will turn out. What is your prediction in Virginia for president?
I have an innate sensation that VA will go Obama.
Thanks. That is a question of enormous debate nationally -- but even more so here.
In September, the highest ranking GOP elected members of the Party were saying privately that they thought the GOP would lose. (Very privately). At that exact same time, I had dinner with a very high ranking dem donor and party official. (he has Governor Kane on his cell phone). He told me he thought that Virginia would go republican because, in his view, Virginia Democrats bear little if any relationship to the national party. I am not spreading hyperbole to say that most state-wide democrats elected in Virginia are more conservative than New Jersey republicans.
I found that logic compelling, but I have to disagree. Virginia is really the tale of 3 states. In Northern Virginia, consisting of Prince William County, Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria, population has literally exploded. The brand of Democrat found in Northern Va counties such as Arlington and Alexandria is best described as ultra left elitist democrat. That group has expanded into Fairfax and Loudoun over the last 8 years.
As evidence, in our last governor's race -- the sitting elected AG who was a Republican got the fewest votes of any statewide candidate. He got fewer than a retread liberal.
In Fairfax County, the Dems voted 63% for the Dem candidate in the Governor's race. That is important because 1.1 million people live in Fairfax, and 2 in 7 VA votes come from Fairfax. In Arlington and Alexandria, the Republican will not break 30% of the vote in those populist counties -- which are more like cities.
Now -- McCain is very popular among moderates here -- and Northern VA is packed with self-proclaimed Moderates.
McCain will carry most of the rest of the state -- except the cities of Richmond and Norfolk. In some southern and western Counties, he will get 85% of the vote -- but only 10-15 thousand people live there. This is the classic red county problem.
Honestly, I think McCain will win OH and FLA. He may come back in CO and NV. I think he will win NC and MO too. But I think he loses Virginia.
For me -- the test in VA will be this. He needs to win 47% in Fairfax county, and he needs to carry Prince William with 52%. If he does that and wins Loudoun, he can win. He will also do very well here in Northern VA and in the Tidewater with VA's substantial military vote.
In the end -- I think Obama wins VA 51 to 49.
Anecdotally -- my polling place was mobbed at 6 am. I was there at 5:50 and there were 500 people on line. There was a huge turnout of African Americans -- so much so it was surprising to several people on line. That is probably good for Mr. Obama.
So -- Here is what you need to know. If you are a Dem -- and Obama wins VA -- get ready to party with probably 325-335 electoral votes.
If you are a republican, and McCain wins or gets within 2% in PA and wins VA -- it will be a long night and the winner may not crack 280 electoral votes. In that case, republicans can at least stay tuned in.
NEVER MIND
