In NJ, Obama by 3 - POLL

[novillero]

I wouldn't think that the race would be as close in NJ as some polls suggest...

Obama leads McCain by 3 in Quinnipiac N.J. poll
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The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state's fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters. Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll. This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign. A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points.
Visit www.PolitickerNJ.com for more information on the Quinnipiac poll and the suddenly competitive race between Obama and McCain in New Jersey.

[novillero]

It all depends on the poll though...

Obama up, but McCain gains
By Michael Riley • STAFF WRITER • September 16, 2008

Sen. Barack Obama maintains his lead for president over Republican Sen. John McCain among New Jersey voters, but his margin among those most likely to vote has narrowed since the summer, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll.

The poll found that 49 percent of registered voters prefer Obama, D-Ill., to 38 percent who support McCain, R-Ariz., including undecided voters who lean toward a candidate.

Among likely voters, though, Obama has a smaller 8-point advantage, leading McCain by 49 percent to 41 percent. This is down from the Democrat's 14-point lead in July.

Obama's continuing lead in the New Jersey poll comes as no surprise to independent voter Mary Boyle of West Long Branch.

"This is New Jersey," Boyle said. "We keep electing the same old liberals. It's annoying. I truly don't know how Obama is ahead in the poll. There are madmen and tyrants in the world and McCain is better able to deal with them."

Obama's support levels are similar to his summer standing among likely voters — 49 percent now to 50 percent in July — while McCain has swung some previously undecided voters into his camp — 41 percent in the current poll compared to 36 percent in July.

Independent voters are split 38 percent for Obama and 37 percent for McCain. About one in three voters indicate they are still not firmly committed to either candidate at this stage of the campaign.

Linda McLean of Matawan is still undecided.

"We're getting killed in New Jersey with taxes and the price of gas," McLean said. "And both candidates are still talking in generalities. I want to see their concrete plans for the economy before I decide who to vote for."

The narrowing of the gap between the two is not out of the ordinary, according to Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch.

"McCain has made some gains in New Jersey, which should not really be a surprise to anyone who has followed election polling in this state," Murray said. "Republican candidates often see some positive movement in September polling, but have had problems maintaining that momentum."

The poll found that the surprise selection of Sarah Palin for vice president on the GOP ticket has certainly ratcheted up interest in the race, but the electoral effect in New Jersey seems to be less significant: McCain has gained no ground with female voters in the Garden State.

Certainly not with Kathleen Krzywicki of Toms River.

"Sarah Palin may be the sort of person you'd like to hang out with at a party," she said. "But as vice president? No."

She doesn't dislike McCain, said Krzywicki, an independent voter, but she plans to vote for Obama.

"I'd like to see New Jersey's poll results be reflected nationwide," she said.

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted by telephone with 689 New Jersey registered voters from Sept. 11 through 14.

This sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. This report also includes analysis on a smaller group of 589 likely voters with a plus or minus of 4 percentage points.

Gannett New Jersey newspapers are the Asbury Park Press, Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune.
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