2008

[richardkelsey]

I saw Fiber's post about re-launch in 348 days.


I would never try to talk anyone out of running for office, raising legitimate issues, and trying to help their town. In fact, I implore people to do so everywhere.

I would just give this cautionary advice. If someone is running as a Republican in Freehold in 2008, that will be statistically the most difficult year to get elected. (Fortunately, not everyone runs just to get elected -- some people run to raise issues and make a difference)

Anyway -- turnout might be higher than 60 percent -- and could be as high as 70% or better. (though I doubt it).

Statistically speaking, that would make the natural disadvantage of party label the largest. At a turnout of 60%, assuming registered dems and registered republicans turnout at the same rate, and that each votes for their party at 90%, and assuming that independents both turnout at the same rate and fall 60% for the dem -- a council race might look like this next year:

Dem 2036
Rep 1267

[adefonzo]

I'm going to have to disagree with you here Mr Kelsey...

While I understand you're looking strictly at the numbers, likely turnout rates, etc, I have a general opposition to people who do things based on such ideas...which is why I really dislike most politicians who sway whichever way the polls are going.

I'm sure you know the old saying, which I'll paraphrase here...You don't just fight the fights you can win, you have to fight the fights worth fighting

On another note...sitting out a year will put more distance between someone like Ted and the voters...better (in my opinion) to run again right away while he's still fresh in their minds. If he can get someone to run with him, his chances will be even better.

[casualreader]

ADefonzo Dude:

Spoken like a true candidate.

My sources indicate that you are the likely person to run with Ted "Never Gonna Be Councilman" Miller in the next race.

Are you up for the challenge of taking on the machine???

Where do you stand?

Casually Thinking of 2008

[adefonzo]

Casual...your "sources" unfortunately are not correct. While I would not count out a chance someday to run for town council, I am still committed to "fighting the fight" for our schools.

With any luck, someone else will step up to the plate to run with Ted.

[richardkelsey]

adefonzo said:

I'm going to have to disagree with you here Mr Kelsey...

While I understand you're looking strictly at the numbers, likely turnout rates, etc, I have a general opposition to people who do things based on such ideas...which is why I really dislike most politicians who sway whichever way the polls are going.

I'm sure you know the old saying, which I'll paraphrase here...You don't just fight the fights you can win, you have to fight the fights worth fighting

On another note...sitting out a year will put more distance between someone like Ted and the voters...better (in my opinion) to run again right away while he's still fresh in their minds. If he can get someone to run with him, his chances will be even better.

Hey -- I could be wrong. Political science is more political than science! I certainly would not want to dissuade anyone from running, and of course one never knows what might happen in an election. I merely point out that you will have greater turnout -- and turnout in a town where one party has double the registrants of the other -- and where Independents consistently votes 60-65% with that majority party -- makes it very hard to beat the numbers. Hard, or course, is not impossible.

But -- the person running better start knocking on doors now! LOL

[richardkelsey]

Nov 12, 2007 14:46:22 GMT -5 richardkelsey said:

I saw Fiber's post about re-launch in 348 days.


I would never try to talk anyone out of running for office, raising legitimate issues, and trying to help their town. In fact, I implore people to do so everywhere.

I would just give this cautionary advice. If someone is running as a Republican in Freehold in 2008, that will be statistically the most difficult year to get elected. (Fortunately, not everyone runs just to get elected -- some people run to raise issues and make a difference)

Anyway -- turnout might be higher than 60 percent -- and could be as high as 70% or better. (though I doubt it).

Statistically speaking, that would make the natural disadvantage of party label the largest. At a turnout of 60%, assuming registered dems and registered republicans turnout at the same rate, and that each votes for their party at 90%, and assuming that independents both turnout at the same rate and fall 60% for the dem -- a council race might look like this next year:

Dem 2036
Rep 1267

Sorry fiber -- just picking up with where I left off last year.


I have re-calculated my numbers to reflect the possibility that turnout could reach 70%

If turnout reaches that number -- here is my projected results based solely on the formula above and the rough party breakdown.

Dem high 2400-2500
GOP High 1400-1525

I gave a range here because, in theory, as the Turnout gets stronger, it actually picks up more party line voters who vote less often and show up for the big ticket -- they tend not to ticket split, and they have little in-depth knowledge of local issues. That would likely push the dem numbers toward the high end of the range. The low end actually represents a slight deviation from the straight analysis assuming localized campaigning and some additional success on parochial issues by the opposition.

I will be quite interested to so if this comes true in either form.

[fiberisgoodforyou]

You can see the "Live" results from this URL, TONIGHT

www.co.monmouth.nj.us/ElectionResults/Election%20Result.htm

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

[fiberisgoodforyou]

Nov 4, 2008 14:28:42 GMT -5 fiberisgoodforyou said:

You can see the "Live" results from this URL, TONIGHT

www.co.monmouth.nj.us/ElectionResults/Election%20Result.htm

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Results...its a tie!!!!

Borough Council - Freehold Borough
0/7 0.00%
Under Votes 0
Over Votes 0

Vote Count Percent
REP - Michael Louis LICHARDI 0 0.00%
REP - Ted MILLER 0 0.00%
DEM - Michael DiBENEDETTO 0 0.00%
DEM - George SCHNURR 0 0.00%
Write-In 0 0.00%
Total 0 0.00%