Election Prediction

[richardkelsey]

Well -- tomorrow is the election.


So -- why not have some election predictions. Mine is more of a wild guess than a prediction -- because i have no real gage for either campaign or any sense of the local angst.

With that caveat -- I predict:

Turnout will be very low. It will be less than 30% of the registered voters -- and may be as little as 27%. (Low turnout will be good for the challenger)

The total votes for the incumbents will be lower than 4 years ago --and total votes cast will also be lower -- probably by 10%. Some opposition continues to vote daily -- with their feet. (The loss of citizens selling to move will be bad for a challenger needing motivated voters.)

The Dem ticket will carry over 90% of two key precincts, though turnout will be remarkably low in those precincts.)

Only one candidate will break 1000 votes. (Mayor Wilson)

Simms will be the low vote-getter on the Dem ticket.

Miller will lose by less than 200 votes. (Sorry Mr. Miller)

The Dems will claim -- as they must -- they have been returned by the voters to continue their work on these difficult issues.

The good news? Mayor Wilson will be so moved and compelled by my coming op-ed -- that he will step down, after appointing his successor. (Okay -- this one I am sure won't happen! LOL)

[stffgpr2003]

Well -- tomorrow is the election.

My election eve message - for what it is worth - best of luck to all of the candidates.

To the residents - get out and vote...and after you do - consider STAYING INVOLVED. COME TO MEETINGS; VOLUNTEER FOR COMMITTEES; and PLEDGE TO CALL A COUNCILMEMBER, A FEW TIMES A YEAR, TO SHARE AN IDEA OR VOICE A CONCERN ABOUT YOUR TOWN.

Marc

[admin]

I will make my own prediction. This is not an endorsement.

I disagree with Rich. I believe Sims is sitting pretty and will get the most votes of the council candidates. That means that the race is between Miller and Kane. I believe it will be a VERY tight race. I am thinking recount and Supreme Court assistance on this one.

I base this on last years election. Joe Liguari did fairly well. This year Miller is running a very aggressive campaign and has been hitting the doors hard for several weeks. Miller also has name recognition, but that could work against him as well as for him.


I agree the turnout will be very low.

I predict a landslide vote for Mayor. About 1500 votes for him and 50 for Casual Reader. ;D

[admin]

One other prediction. I think Beck will carry Freehold Borough. i don't know how well she will do over all, but Karcher appears to have really ticked off alot of people here.

We might see a heavier GOP slant this year in FB. Big might.

[petedefonzo]

I would be very surprised if Simms gets the most votes. The reason the mayor was walking with Simms is that they view him as the weakest candidate. Kane is the son of a former mayor and a member of the "Freehold family". Ted will get the school vote,but not sure that will be enough. I have to give him a lot of credit, working alone, I believe that he has them a bit nervous. Which I could vote, but I wish Ted luck. As far as Karcher and her running nmates, if they carry Frehold it will be a shame. They did nothing for the schools except talk. We'll see if the voters of Freehold care.

[admin]

petedefonzo said:

I would be very surprised if Simms gets the most votes. The reason the mayor was walking with Simms is that they view him as the weakest candidate. Kane is the son of a former mayor and a member of the "Freehold family". Ted will get the school vote,but not sure that will be enough. I have to give him a lot of credit, working alone, I believe that he has them a bit nervous. Which I could vote, but I wish Ted luck. As far as Karcher and her running nmates, if they carry Freehold it will be a shame. They did nothing for the schools except talk. We'll see if the voters of Freehold care.

I still would not underestimate Jaye. He has been around town in many ways and is very well liked by those who know him, including me. He is also fresh blood on the council which I believe is in his favor.

You do bring up one good point about the schools vote maybe not being enough for Miller. Many of the parents can not even vote.

[richardkelsey]

richardkelsey said:

Well -- tomorrow is the election.


So -- why not have some election predictions. Mine is more of a wild guess than a prediction -- because i have no real gage for either campaign or any sense of the local angst.

With that caveat -- I predict:

Turnout will be very low. It will be less than 30% of the registered voters -- and may be as little as 27%. (Low turnout will be good for the challenger)

The total votes for the incumbents will be lower than 4 years ago --and total votes cast will also be lower -- probably by 10%. Some opposition continues to vote daily -- with their feet. (The loss of citizens selling to move will be bad for a challenger needing motivated voters.)

The Dem ticket will carry over 90% of two key precincts, though turnout will be remarkably low in those precincts.)

Only one candidate will break 1000 votes. (Mayor Wilson)

Simms will be the low vote-getter on the Dem ticket.

Miller will lose by less than 200 votes. (Sorry Mr. Miller)

The Dems will claim -- as they must -- they have been returned by the voters to continue their work on these difficult issues.

The good news? Mayor Wilson will be so moved and compelled by my coming op-ed -- that he will step down, after appointing his successor. (Okay -- this one I am sure won't happen! LOL)

I have done an updated statistical anaylsis of the Borough Council race and using registered voter data, demographics, and turnout assumptions -- I have come up with three likely scenario's


Here they are:

31% turnout (Assumes 28.7% dems, 14.7% republicans, and 57% independents with the dem carrying 60%)

High Dem Council/Kane 929

Miller 642

This scenario assumes the same turnout -- with 50/50 split on independents

High Dem Council/Kane 830

Miller 732


Last scenario assumes even lower turnout -- about 26%. This scenario makes assumptions about voters based on demographics and party affiliation.

High Dem Council/Kane 713

Miller 592

I thought it would take about 900 votes to win a council seat -- and these analysis bear that out -- though with lower turnout and some party switching -- the votes could narrow.

If the dems both crack 950, I don't see how Mr. Miller can win.

With low turnout and a dem vote total int he low to mid 800 -- and a few more votes breaking his way -- he could win.

Statistically -- it is not encouraging for Miller supporters -- but that is where a ground game in a small town can be the difference. (I have no feeling for how that is working for either party.)

Make no mistake -- If Mr. Miller gets within 150 votes, having been in the race for about 1.5 months, and running against 3 candidates, and having no organized help from an organized party, and getting no press help of any kind, and having no large money advantage -- it will show how truly vulnerable Borough Council members could be to an organized campaign.

[fiberisgoodforyou]

just for giggles and grins, try the numbers with the 57% independents with the repub. carrying 60%...

gonna look more like A horse race

[fiberisgoodforyou]

OH, and figure 20-30% of the dems will break their vote my way!!!

fiberisgoodforyou said:

just for giggles and grins, try the numbers with the 57% independents with the repub. carrying 60%...

gonna look more like A horse race

[stffgpr2003]

Sad Commentary - breaking news article...APP

While others are pulling levers or touching screens on voting machines throughout New Jersey today, Marjorie Perez will be dying hair and filing fingernails.

The 22-year-old Atlantic City woman said she's never registered to vote and has no plans to cast a ballot, this year or any other.

"People vote, and nothing ever happens,'' said Perez, who works at a beauty parlor a few blocks from the casinos. "It's always the same thing. One vote from me is not going to change anything ... It doesn't affect me or my life at all.''

It was a common refrain in interviews across the state with people who aren't planning to vote. Other common excuses: I'm too busy; I don't care about politics; all politicians are corrupt; I don't want to go out in the rain.

In every election, the number of people who don't vote far exceeds the number who do. Even among those who are registered to vote, people who actually cast a ballot are usually outnumbered by those who don't although presidential elections tend to be the exception.

Why the disconnect?

"'Life is complicated and this is not important to me and I'm busy,''' said Ingrid Reed, director of the New Jersey Project at Rutgers University's Eagleton Institute of Politics, describing some of the reasons why people don't vote.

Reed said the Garden State's well-deserved reputation for political corruption is turning some voters off. Mike Agios, a Point Pleasant Beach auto mechanic, is among them.

"I'm disgusted with politicians, completely,'' he said this morning, taking a break from working on one of a half-dozen cars awaiting servicing. "They're all crooks. They do nothing for the people.

""If you add up all the people who feel like me, that's a substantial number of votes,'' he added.

Nulkis Martinez of Atlantic City said she is too busy with day-to-day chores to vote.

"I just don't have the time,'' she said.

Reed said most voters don't know which legislative district they live in, making for very little interest in an election topped by the state Legislature.

Turnout tends to be higher in elections with a statewide or national office up for vote. In 2003, the last time the Legislature topped the ballot, only 34 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.

It's generally believed that voter turnout is higher when the weather is good. This morning's showers probably did not help.

New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine, voting at a Hoboken fire station today called on voters to ignore the rain and go to the polls.

Nearly 4.8 million New Jerseyans are registered to vote in this election, including 1.1 million Democrats, 874,457 Republicans, and 2.7 million unaffiliated voters.

About two hours after polls opened today, 20-year-old Gavin Pemberton stopped at a coffee shop in Mount Laurel. He said he was headed to his job at a credit repair agency and would not be able to get to the polls. "It's pretty hard to get off,'' he explained.

Post a Comment View All Comments

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I would totally love to vote, if in fact there was any one on these ballots seriously worth voting for. They're all not looking to better the state, just their bank accounts. As for finding things out about the candidates, yeah have fun. I agree with the poster who stated about all the lies and twists people put out about themselves. How many people have said one thing then once in did the opposite, um gee, most of them? Seriously, my vote would be a total waste because it would go to Homer Simpson every single time!

Posted by: killwing on Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:57 pm

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if you really want people to get out and vote, put somebody on the ballot worth voting for

Posted by: harlee on Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:21 pm

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I voted at 630 this morning and it wont make one bit of difference because Jerseyans are creatures (or idiots if you believe the ballot question) of habit. You heard it here folks ............. at 212 in the afternoon. The Democrats will retain control of both houses, all four questions will be approved, Corzine is going to hit us up with increases in gasoline taxes, income taxes, and other fees that will make our heads swim. Everyone will complain that this is not fair and proceed to re-elect the same people again next time around. At least I can say that I didn't vote for these tax grabbing Democrats.

And to the rest of you...................Lots of Luck!

Posted by: Marlboro Man on Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:17 pm

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No one can use time conflict with work as an excuse not to vote. All it takes is mailing a request for an absentee ballot to the County Clerk, and your absentee ballot will be sent to you. The form is easily found online or at your town hall. That's how I vote each election, and I don't have to worry about finding the time to go to the polls.

The harder part is determining what each candidate stands for and has actually done. Campaign literature is filled with misleading facts or downright lies. Candidates spin everything and try to avoid controversial stances. And you can't count on the news media for unbiased reporting on the candidates. So finding the best candidate is my bigger problem.

Posted by: Pressgirl on Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:48 pm

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It still very important that those who vote are well informed on the issues and canidates. If they are not, then they should not waste everyones time and votes by voting a block without the actual facts.

If a person has to be bribed into voting, then thats Unconstitutional and immoral.

Posted by: airpat on Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:31 pm

[fiberisgoodforyou]

Question 3: The “Open Space” Scam
By Steve Lonegan - October 28, 2007 - 11:08pm
Tags: eminent domain, open space, property rights, ballot, Green Acres Farmland Blue Acres and Historic Preservation Bond Act of 2007, questions,
In 1998, New Jersey committed a staggering $3 billion to preserving so-called open space by floating more debt and mortgaging our children’s future. While the world was moving away from socialism with aggressive land reforms to allow property rights and markets to function in the area of land-use, New Jersey chose to go in the other direction, consolidating land control in the hands of state bureaucrats. The program has been, by any measure, a failure, falling well-short of its goals, although achieving the tragic “success” of moving over 300,000 acres of land from private citizens to the state.

Nine years later, voters will decide, when we vote on question three - the “Green Acres, Farmland, Blue Acres and Historic Preservation Bond Act of 2007,” - whether we want the state to borrow another $200 million. We don’t have to keep this racket going, including allowing the state to use the power of eminent domain to forcibly take land from property owners.

Being for “open space” might feel good, but it’s poor public policy. Taxpayers cannot afford more debt. New Jersey is the fourth most indebted state in the nation with over $33 billion in debt, has a stagnant economy, and is hemorrhaging population, making the debt burden that much more onerous for those of us who stay in New Jersey. We cannot afford more debt, interest payments, and spending. This is not a time to waste another $200 million on a program that has demonstrated diminishing results.

Home prices are already high, not just because of economic fundamentals but also the high regulatory burdens we place through permitting and environmental requirements. Restrictions on the availability of land make New Jersey even less affordable by decreasing the supply, which requires the state to spend more on future land purchases as the central planners continue to advance there agenda. This also erodes the property tax base by moving land from taxable owners in the private sector off the tax rolls and into government hands.

As local property tax rolls are depleted, there are two possible outcomes, either property taxes are raised on the remaining private property or the state provides so-called hold-harmless funds, as the Act suggests. But that’s not a solution, because it means passing these costs to taxpayers statewide. Another effect on our society is the most disturbing. Supply and demand will force up the cost of land and the one family home, the American Dream, slips further out of reach for many homebuyers. This is what Trenton’s social engineers want, pushing residents into high-density, government subsidized “affordable” housing.

Proponents of the Act claim that it doesn’t contain a tax increase But, it will lead to one, both because of the costs of servicing the bonds and state-aid to make up for lost local property tax revenue. The Act contains language that would result in an automatic tax hike when the state legislature fails to fund the bonds - which means raising taxes, since offsetting spending cuts are unlikely from this legislature. The tax hike would be an increase in the property taxes in every municipality.

Worst of all is that property acquired under this socialistic land reform program would not necessarily be voluntarily sold by its owners. The Act establishes four separate trust funds - green acres, farmland, blue acres, and historic preservation. Only the trust fund for blue acres, which refers to areas in flood plains, is restricted to purchases from willing sellers.

For the other three funds, the Act is explicit that one of the powers the state will use to “acquire” property is to seize it through the power of eminent domain. Giving the rampant eminent domain abuses we’ve seen, providing funds to be used this way is dangerous.

Taxpayers have been conned into spending a staggering sum on open space preservation bonds and additional “Open Space” taxes with little to show for it other than a mountain of debt and higher property taxes. The most important environmental aspect to question 3 regards not the natural but the fiscal environment - taxpayers can’t afford this bond measure and should vote against it November Sixth.

[fiberisgoodforyou]

Republicans say early numbers look good in Wall Township
By Max Pizarro - November 6, 2007 - 3:42pm
Tags: John Napolitani, John Pirnat, David Rible, Mary Pat Angelini, Sean Kean, John Villapiano,
In district 11, a last minute shot by the Democrats to make the Assembly contest competitive with a six-figure check translated in part into an attack ad targeting Republican David Rible of Wall Township.

Rible is running for the Assembly with Mary Pat Angelini of Ocean against Democrats John Napolitani of Interlaken and John Pirnat of Belmar.

The top of the ticket features Republican Assemblyman Sean Kean, who's strong in the district and figures to walk over Democratic challenger John Villapiano. The question is whether Kean is strong enough to pull Rible and Angelini in with him.

Republican campaign spokesman Ryan Sharpe said his team is looking good early. There is a controversial local race in Wall Township - home base for both Kean and Rible - and that's putting voters in the booths.

"We're so far looking at high turnout in our good districts," said Sharpe. "We're playing a wait and see game at this point, but turnout in Wall is key for this election."

In Democratic Party headquarters, meanwhile, Jim Sverapa IV, conceded that the Republican numbers are good based on the first half of the day.

"But it's too early to say anything," Sverapa said. "We're getting into our golden voting area now. We're blue collar. We're not going to put our numbers up until after work."

[fiberisgoodforyou]

Break out the Gerital....

Sabato: Lautenberg re-election "Likely"
By Wally Edge - November 6, 2007 - 11:31am
Tags: Frank Lautenberg, Joseph Pennacchio, Anne Estabrook, Larry Sabato,
The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato, one of the nation's premier election analysts, says that next year's U.S. Senate race is Likely Democratic. That's no surprise in a state where Republicans haven't won a U.S. Senate race since 1972. But worth noting is Sabato's analysis of the GOP candidates: he thinks Joseph Pennacchio is a stronger candidate than millionaire Anne Evans Estabrook.

From Sabato's Crystal Ball:

While New Jersey voters have their eye on next year's election, many wonder how much that focus should be on current Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg's approaching 84th birthday. If Lautenberg were just 20 years younger, most would hail him as a shoe-in incumbent; his strong and consistent criticism of the Bush administration's policy in Iraq, his Congressional experience, and his being a Democrat in this dark blue state would all greatly work in his favor. However, his old age has many pulling for retirement rather than re-election. In Lautenberg's favor is New Jersey's ranking as the second most expensive state to campaign in. With $2.9 million on hand and $1 million raised in the first quarter alone, Lautenberg certainly has the funds needed.

As it is still early in the race, thus far only two exploratory committees have been formed, with no Republicans officially entering the race as of yet. Strongly conservative Assemblyman Michael Doherty has formed one of these committees, but seems an unlikely candidate in this very blue state. The successful real estate developer Anne Evans Eastbrook is the only other potential Republican challenger to have formed an exploratory committee. Though Ms. Eastbrook may have the funds to contend with the big boys of New Jersey, she is a widely unknown figure among voters. Finally, it is the undecided state Assemblyman, Joe Pennacchio that seems to be Lautenberg's biggest worry. Often deemed Reagan-esque, many Republicans feel that Pennacchio's bipartisan appeal would make him very electable.

In a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, the GOP will have their work cut out for them. Though Lautenberg's age certainly poses a real threat to Democrats, many speculate that presidential election fever will bring Democrats out to the polls in full force next November. Nonetheless, if Giuliani makes it onto the Republican ticket, such a theory could be turned on its head.

[fiberisgoodforyou]

While poll after poll continues to show that New Jersey voters feel Frank Lautenberg is too old to remain in the senate, there is no doubt that Democrats will do whatever they have to in order to hold on to this ever so valuable seat.

Whether Lautenberg runs, retires, or drops out after the primary and gets replaced by the likes of a Rob Andrews, there is only one Republican who would be able to rise above it and be victorious. That Republican's name is Al Leiter.

Al Leiter has what it takes to cut through all of the Democrat garbage.

It's time for NJGOP to take the tactical steps neccesary to be victorious on Election Day '08 and the first step in making that happen is reaching out to Al Leiter. I don't care if they have to get on their knees and beg him to run, they must use all means at their disposal to get him into the race.

That is of course, unless they want to lose again.

leiter2008.blogspot.com/2007/09/al-must-run.html

[fiberisgoodforyou]

Mayor Mike will enter the National Political Scene as Lautenburg Senate replacement!

fiberisgoodforyou said:

While poll after poll continues to show that New Jersey voters feel Frank Lautenberg is too old to remain in the senate, there is no doubt that Democrats will do whatever they have to in order to hold on to this ever so valuable seat.

Whether Lautenberg runs, retires, or drops out after the primary and gets replaced by the likes of a Rob Andrews, there is only one Republican who would be able to rise above it and be victorious. That Republican's name is Al Leiter.

Al Leiter has what it takes to cut through all of the Democrat garbage.

It's time for NJGOP to take the tactical steps neccesary to be victorious on Election Day '08 and the first step in making that happen is reaching out to Al Leiter. I don't care if they have to get on their knees and beg him to run, they must use all means at their disposal to get him into the race.

That is of course, unless they want to lose again.

leiter2008.blogspot.com/2007/09/al-must-run.html

[cheryl]

Monmouth Democrats, happy with turnout, hopeful of victory
Posted by the Asbury Park Press on 11/6/07

BY BOB JORDAN
FREEHOLD BUREAU

Monmouth County Democratic party officials said polling trends indicate that their party may emerge with control of the county government for the first time in more than 20 years.

"I'm very optimistic about the four county elections,'' said party spokesman Michael Mangan. "We're seeing good turnout in all the right precincts.''

Democrats Stephen G. Schueler and John D'Amico Jr. are running for two freeholder seats currently held by Republicans. If the Democrats sweep, they will gain a 3-2 majority on the freeholder board in January.

Mangan said that in the 12th Legislative District the party "has hundreds of people on the ground. We're also doing extensive work in the 11th and 13th districts. We're pulling out Democrats to the polls.''

Mangan said there are reports of "phenomenal turnout'' in Democratic-leaning precincts in Marlboro, and voters in party strongholds such as Asbury Park, Long Branch and Neptune have also been coming out in "good numbers,'' Mangan said.

www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071106/NEWS/71106056/1001/rss

Cheryl sez: There has been a lot of GOTV activity in town today. We've been visited twice, and have gotten 4 calls (so far).

[cheryl]

Monmouth GOP focuses on get-out-the-vote efforts
Posted by the Asbury Park Press on 11/6/07

BY BOB JORDAN
FREEHOLD BUREAU

The Monmouth County Republican Party is depending on a late get-out-the-vote push to provide a boost in today's election results.

Party Chairman Adam Puharic said a number of paid workers and volunteers went door-to-door in heavily Republican and Republican-leaning areas of the county on Saturday, and targeted reminder phone calls about the election were made to registered Republicans through the weekend.

"We're probably going to have a mid-35 percent turnout in the county, but I see hints of higher turnouts in a Republican areas such as Wall Township,'' Puharic said. "Low turnout years seem to be partisan years, which is why it's important for your base of support to vote.''

Puharic said he is confident that his party will fare well.

"Our people got very good feedback from residents over the weekend,'' Puharic said.

www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071106/NEWS/71106054

[leelye]

Just left the Fire House District #1 and we were #200 and #201. Pretty big turnout for an off year election. My guess is the one with the most votes will win.

[admin]

Just got home from district 6. We were 284 and 283

[admin]

cheryl said:

Monmouth Democrats, happy with turnout, hopeful of victory
Posted by the Asbury Park Press on 11/6/07

BY BOB JORDAN
FREEHOLD BUREAU

Monmouth County Democratic party officials said polling trends indicate that their party may emerge with control of the county government for the first time in more than 20 years.

"I'm very optimistic about the four county elections,'' said party spokesman Michael Mangan. "We're seeing good turnout in all the right precincts.''

Democrats Stephen G. Schueler and John D'Amico Jr. are running for two freeholder seats currently held by Republicans. If the Democrats sweep, they will gain a 3-2 majority on the freeholder board in January.

Mangan said that in the 12th Legislative District the party "has hundreds of people on the ground. We're also doing extensive work in the 11th and 13th districts. We're pulling out Democrats to the polls.''

Mangan said there are reports of "phenomenal turnout'' in Democratic-leaning precincts in Marlboro, and voters in party strongholds such as Asbury Park, Long Branch and Neptune have also been coming out in "good numbers,'' Mangan said.

www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071106/NEWS/71106056/1001/rss

Cheryl sez: There has been a lot of GOTV activity in town today. We've been visited twice, and have gotten 4 calls (so far).

I am very leery of this piece from the APP. They have been out to get the Republican Freeholders for some time and considering the history of head hunting the APP has, this article has to be viewed with caution.

[andrewd]

got home about an hour ago from district 4...I was # 202...as always, I fear the big winner in this election will be apathy...that article printed in the APP (posted by Marc above) says it all.

one day, I would love for a media outlet to take a survey of all of those people, tally up the numbers, then go back to them and say, "You know, you and all of the other people we spoke to who weren't going to vote for one reason or another, you totaled over 10,000 people...still think your votes wouldn't make a difference?"

folks...it's the absolute cornerstone of a democracy...if you don't vote, you don't practice, perhaps don't believe in, and to some maybe don't deserve to live in, a democracy.

It takes a half hour at the most...just go and vote

[adefonzo]

...and now under the id I meant to post under...

I will be over at Boro Hall at 8pm to watch the results come in...if anyone is interested in knowing...get in touch with me...

[admin]

This is a good read after reading Marc's post about voter apathy. Here are three races where every vote counted. On election night it was wild watching as the numbers flipped between Damico and Cantor. It appears that ride finally ended with a victor. Anyone who thinks their vote does not count is buying into a myth.

Conrats to Freeholder elect, D'Amico






www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071110/NEWS/711100340/1004/NEWS01

PROVISIONAL BALLOTS: Victors also confirmed in 2 towns

Results finally in: D'Amico, Clifton win
Posted by the Asbury Park Press on 11/10/07
BY BOB JORDAN
FREEHOLD BUREAU

Post Comment
FREEHOLD TOWNSHIP — Twenty-one years after winning a Monmouth County freeholder election, Democrat John D'Amico Jr.'s comeback run has been done with a flourish.

The remaining votes from Tuesday's close elections were tabulated, and they allowed D'Amico to swing to the top of the pack among the four candidates who sought the two board seats.

"I appreciate the support I've received from the voters," D'Amico said.

D'Amico and Republican Robert D. Clifton have won election to the board and will begin their three-year terms in January, pending the certification of the results by County Clerk M. Claire French early next week. Candidates have until Nov. 21 — 10 business days after the election — to request recounts.

There were 584 provisional ballots counted by Board of Elections' commissioners on Friday. Such ballots are submitted by prospective voters who are found to have unclear registration records, and the votes are counted if registrations are confirmed. Officials rejected 103 provisional ballots.

D'Amico, who started the day in second place in the freeholder race, 14 votes behind Clifton, picked up 226 votes, lifting his total to 62,289. Clifton was 13 votes behind.

This will be the third board term for D'Amico, who won elections in 1983 and 1986, then moved to the state Senate. He later served as a Superior Court judge and headed the state Parole Board.

Clifton was the only incumbent in the election.

Third-place finisher Jeffrey Cantor's hopes of moving closer to winning a seat faded. Cantor, a Republican, is 381 votes behind Clifton. D'Amico's running mate, Stephen G. Schueler, is more than 2,000 votes behind Cantor.

French said this was the closest county-wide election ever conducted in Monmouth.

Neither Cantor nor county GOP Chairman Adam Puharic could be reached for comment. Puharic had said the possibility of requesting a recount on Cantor's behalf would be considered after the provisional votes were counted.

There were also two municipal races close enough to be affected by provisional ballots. Democrat Maria D. Fernandes hung on to her lead in the contest for mayor of Sea Bright and finished with 272 votes, three more than Republican Jo-Ann Kalaka-Adams.

Fernandes was on hand to watch the election officials sort through the provisional ballot paperwork and then announce that Fernandes had enough overall votes to win.

"I was nervous," Fernandes said. "I'm glad I came and saw it firsthand."

In the race for mayor in Matawan, Democrat Mary Aufseeser prevailed by one vote over Republican Paul Buccellato, 947 to 946. Buccellato had received five provisional votes to Aufseeser's three provisionals.

The county turnout in Tuesday's election was 35 percent.

Bob Jordan: [phone] or [e-mail]