Post by Fed Up on Sept 3, 2006 9:49:08 GMT -5
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National parties closely watching Menendez-Kean Senate fight
Experts say if stalemate continues, big guns may make New Jersey a key battleground in fight for control
Sunday, September 03, 2006
BY JEFF WHELAN
Star-Ledger Staff
For a Democrat running for U.S. Senate in New Jersey, this fall should be a breeze.
President Bush's popularity is in the cellar. Most voters feel the Iraq war is a disaster. High gasoline prices and economic anxiety add to voters' disenchantment with Republican control of Washington. And Republicans haven't won a statewide race here for nearly a decade.
Yet U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez finds himself locked in a dead heat with his Republican challenger, Tom Kean Jr., in most polls.
"For a very blue state, in a very anti-Republican year, New Jersey is not behaving as one would expect it to," said Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst for the Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C. "One would expect the whole anti-Republican mood would be weighing Kean down, or at least giving Menendez something of a boost, and it's not there yet."
Now, as the campaign enters the unofficial start of the fall election season, political experts say the national parties will be watching New Jersey closely in the coming weeks to see if the stalemate continues. If it does, they say, the parties could end up pouring millions of dollars into the state, making it a key battleground in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate, where Republicans now have a 55 to 45 advantage.
"At that point, I think the Republicans are going to pile in and try to pull off a surprise," said Ross Baker, a Rutgers University professor and congressional scholar.
"Democrats in Washington, I'm sure, are disappointed they will have to spend time and resources here, but they can't lose this seat," said Rider University political science professor David Rebovich.
However, the analysts said, it would be a gamble for national Republicans to invest in New Jersey. They are on the defensive around the country, trying to help vulnerable incumbents hold on to seats in places such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Montana. Senate Democrats have fewer vulnerable incumbents and more room to go on the offensive, along with a $15 million fundraising advantage.
One sign of the national interest in the New Jersey race comes this Wednesday as both campaigns turn to the star power of former presidents to raise campaign cash and fire up their political bases.
Former President Bill Clinton will headline a fundraiser in Elizabeth where Menendez hopes to rake in up to $1 million, while former President George H.W. Bush, who carried New Jersey in 1988 but lost to Clinton four years later, will seek to give Kean a similar boost and raise more than $250,000 at an event in Bridgewater.
Other big names soon will follow. At least two possible GOP presidential contenders in 2008 -- Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- will also campaign for Kean this fall. And Menendez will stump with a pair of Democratic favorites, U.S. Sens. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts and Barack Obama of Illinois.
Neither campaign has yet put ads on broadcast television, and sources in both campaigns said there are no plans to do so this week. But the candidates have already been going after each other in early debates and through dueling press conferences, and those attacks -- notable for their nastiness -- are expected to escalate after Labor Day.
"It's kind of like the early rounds of a not-very-exciting fight. There have been a couple of punches exchanged, but the real action hasn't started yet," said Clay Richards, a pollster with Quinnipiac University. "Now we'll have to see if they really go at it or if it's just rope-a-dope."
The major themes of the campaign have been set, and strategists on both sides say they expect them to change little before Election Day.
Menendez, who served in the U.S. House of Representatives for more than a decade before Gov. Jon Corzine tapped him as his replacement in the Senate in January, has sought to link Kean to President Bush.
Menendez has highlighted the fact that he was one of the few in Congress to vote against the war in Iraq and that Kean has said he would have supported the president on that decision.
The Democrat plans to drive home the message that the federal government is spending billions on the war that could be better spent in areas such as health care or tax breaks for the middle class.
"The biggest issue, inarguably, is Iraq and homeland security. It's inarguably the defining issue for Bush and on that issue, more than any other, Tom Kean is just like George Bush and has made no attempt to separate himself," said Brad Lawrence, a top political consultant for Menendez.
Kean, a state senator, has sought to localize the election, criticizing Menendez's ethics and associates and seeking to tap into voter anger about recent political scandals in New Jersey. His campaign rarely misses a chance to mention Kean's father, the popular former governor and head of the 9/11 commission.
"It's a clear contrast between a young fresh face who represents change versus a proven corrupt party boss who represents more of the same," said Matt Leonardo, Kean's chief consultant.
The Kean campaign is ecstatic about recent polls and has taken to calling Menendez "the most vulnerable Democrat in America." They hope to score the first Republican statewide win in New Jersey since Christie Whitman was elected to a second term as governor in 1997.
In other recent statewide elections, Democrats have held comfortable leads in August polls. The exception was Sen. Robert Torricelli in 2002, who was facing an ethics investigation and ultimately dropped out of the race.
Menendez aides are not worried about the current polls, and note that New Jersey voters have a history of being late deciders. They say voters haven't been paying attention yet, and are confusing Kean with his father (an assertion the Kean camp disputes vehemently).
Kean has fought Menendez to a draw largely with relentless attacks on the senator's ethics, analysts said. Most recently he criticized Menendez for collecting rent as a landlord from a non-profit agency he had helped obtain federal funds. Menendez has said the House ethics committee gave him clearance for the arrangement.
Republicans sought to use ethics as an issue against Corzine in last year's governor's race, but it failed to win them the election. Rebovich, of Rider University, said Menendez is more susceptible to the attack because he is less well-known, having never run statewide.
Rebovich said subtle racism among some white suburban swing voters could also be at play. Menendez is the state's first Hispanic senator.
Democrats say privately they expect Menendez's ethnicity to cost them up to three percentage points, but they say that can be overcome by picking up more Hispanic votes than previous Democratic candidates.
Menendez has a hefty advantage in fundraising. The most recent campaign finance reports -- released in July -- showed Menendez with $7.4 million in the bank, compared with Kean's $2.3 million.
"The money gap is, at the end of the day, a pretty big deal," said Duffy, of the Cook Report. She also noted that New Jersey Republicans have created a buzz in the past, only to fizzle out as the campaign kicked into high gear. "Have we ever seen (national) Republicans put in the kind of money they need to win in New Jersey?"
National parties closely watching Menendez-Kean Senate fight
Experts say if stalemate continues, big guns may make New Jersey a key battleground in fight for control
Sunday, September 03, 2006
BY JEFF WHELAN
Star-Ledger Staff
For a Democrat running for U.S. Senate in New Jersey, this fall should be a breeze.
President Bush's popularity is in the cellar. Most voters feel the Iraq war is a disaster. High gasoline prices and economic anxiety add to voters' disenchantment with Republican control of Washington. And Republicans haven't won a statewide race here for nearly a decade.
Yet U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez finds himself locked in a dead heat with his Republican challenger, Tom Kean Jr., in most polls.
"For a very blue state, in a very anti-Republican year, New Jersey is not behaving as one would expect it to," said Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst for the Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C. "One would expect the whole anti-Republican mood would be weighing Kean down, or at least giving Menendez something of a boost, and it's not there yet."
Now, as the campaign enters the unofficial start of the fall election season, political experts say the national parties will be watching New Jersey closely in the coming weeks to see if the stalemate continues. If it does, they say, the parties could end up pouring millions of dollars into the state, making it a key battleground in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate, where Republicans now have a 55 to 45 advantage.
"At that point, I think the Republicans are going to pile in and try to pull off a surprise," said Ross Baker, a Rutgers University professor and congressional scholar.
"Democrats in Washington, I'm sure, are disappointed they will have to spend time and resources here, but they can't lose this seat," said Rider University political science professor David Rebovich.
However, the analysts said, it would be a gamble for national Republicans to invest in New Jersey. They are on the defensive around the country, trying to help vulnerable incumbents hold on to seats in places such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Montana. Senate Democrats have fewer vulnerable incumbents and more room to go on the offensive, along with a $15 million fundraising advantage.
One sign of the national interest in the New Jersey race comes this Wednesday as both campaigns turn to the star power of former presidents to raise campaign cash and fire up their political bases.
Former President Bill Clinton will headline a fundraiser in Elizabeth where Menendez hopes to rake in up to $1 million, while former President George H.W. Bush, who carried New Jersey in 1988 but lost to Clinton four years later, will seek to give Kean a similar boost and raise more than $250,000 at an event in Bridgewater.
Other big names soon will follow. At least two possible GOP presidential contenders in 2008 -- Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- will also campaign for Kean this fall. And Menendez will stump with a pair of Democratic favorites, U.S. Sens. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts and Barack Obama of Illinois.
Neither campaign has yet put ads on broadcast television, and sources in both campaigns said there are no plans to do so this week. But the candidates have already been going after each other in early debates and through dueling press conferences, and those attacks -- notable for their nastiness -- are expected to escalate after Labor Day.
"It's kind of like the early rounds of a not-very-exciting fight. There have been a couple of punches exchanged, but the real action hasn't started yet," said Clay Richards, a pollster with Quinnipiac University. "Now we'll have to see if they really go at it or if it's just rope-a-dope."
The major themes of the campaign have been set, and strategists on both sides say they expect them to change little before Election Day.
Menendez, who served in the U.S. House of Representatives for more than a decade before Gov. Jon Corzine tapped him as his replacement in the Senate in January, has sought to link Kean to President Bush.
Menendez has highlighted the fact that he was one of the few in Congress to vote against the war in Iraq and that Kean has said he would have supported the president on that decision.
The Democrat plans to drive home the message that the federal government is spending billions on the war that could be better spent in areas such as health care or tax breaks for the middle class.
"The biggest issue, inarguably, is Iraq and homeland security. It's inarguably the defining issue for Bush and on that issue, more than any other, Tom Kean is just like George Bush and has made no attempt to separate himself," said Brad Lawrence, a top political consultant for Menendez.
Kean, a state senator, has sought to localize the election, criticizing Menendez's ethics and associates and seeking to tap into voter anger about recent political scandals in New Jersey. His campaign rarely misses a chance to mention Kean's father, the popular former governor and head of the 9/11 commission.
"It's a clear contrast between a young fresh face who represents change versus a proven corrupt party boss who represents more of the same," said Matt Leonardo, Kean's chief consultant.
The Kean campaign is ecstatic about recent polls and has taken to calling Menendez "the most vulnerable Democrat in America." They hope to score the first Republican statewide win in New Jersey since Christie Whitman was elected to a second term as governor in 1997.
In other recent statewide elections, Democrats have held comfortable leads in August polls. The exception was Sen. Robert Torricelli in 2002, who was facing an ethics investigation and ultimately dropped out of the race.
Menendez aides are not worried about the current polls, and note that New Jersey voters have a history of being late deciders. They say voters haven't been paying attention yet, and are confusing Kean with his father (an assertion the Kean camp disputes vehemently).
Kean has fought Menendez to a draw largely with relentless attacks on the senator's ethics, analysts said. Most recently he criticized Menendez for collecting rent as a landlord from a non-profit agency he had helped obtain federal funds. Menendez has said the House ethics committee gave him clearance for the arrangement.
Republicans sought to use ethics as an issue against Corzine in last year's governor's race, but it failed to win them the election. Rebovich, of Rider University, said Menendez is more susceptible to the attack because he is less well-known, having never run statewide.
Rebovich said subtle racism among some white suburban swing voters could also be at play. Menendez is the state's first Hispanic senator.
Democrats say privately they expect Menendez's ethnicity to cost them up to three percentage points, but they say that can be overcome by picking up more Hispanic votes than previous Democratic candidates.
Menendez has a hefty advantage in fundraising. The most recent campaign finance reports -- released in July -- showed Menendez with $7.4 million in the bank, compared with Kean's $2.3 million.
"The money gap is, at the end of the day, a pretty big deal," said Duffy, of the Cook Report. She also noted that New Jersey Republicans have created a buzz in the past, only to fizzle out as the campaign kicked into high gear. "Have we ever seen (national) Republicans put in the kind of money they need to win in New Jersey?"