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Post by admin on Jul 23, 2006 11:25:17 GMT -5
The New York Post had an article from Robert Novak which had some interesting info on the New Jersey senate race.
In Novak's opinion, this years race holds some hope for the Republican's to finally win a senate seat this election. We all know that the polls are showing a very tight race, some of which have Kean ahead of Menendez.
One key area is among independent voters. Monmouth University's poll shows a fifteen point lead in this group, in favor of Kean.
Novak goes on to state that the last time a Republican in this race had any lead in the summer before election was on 1972. Democrats have traditionally showed a strong lead in the summer polls. By November the lead is trimmed to what is sometimes a narrow victory.
Could be an interesting one, we will have to see.
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Post by richardkelsey on Jul 23, 2006 18:38:30 GMT -5
Sorry -- this one is not in play. Kean loses by at least 6% -- Probably more.
It would take an extraordinary set of event to elect a Republican state-wide in New Jersey. Given the likely national tidal wave against Republicans, winning a solidly blue state is almost impossible.
I would not be surprised if he lost by 10% or more. No GOP insider believes he has a chance, and the National party will not be spending its money there -- another disadvantage.
I hope I am wrong.
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Post by admin on Jul 23, 2006 18:46:21 GMT -5
Rich, I hope you are wrong too. I put that post up because it did reflect a different trend than usual. I would be very surprised if NJ elected a republican.
As far as the tidal wave against republican on a national level, I would not be so sure. The Dems are not doing a good job of putting forth any real change. The do have a good opportunity to show this country a positive direction, but they have yet to give us anything to bite on. We will see.
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Post by richardkelsey on Nov 16, 2006 17:32:20 GMT -5
Sorry -- this one is not in play. Kean loses by at least 6% -- Probably more. It would take an extraordinary set of event to elect a Republican state-wide in New Jersey. Given the likely national tidal wave against Republicans, winning a solidly blue state is almost impossible. I would not be surprised if he lost by 10% or more. No GOP insider believes he has a chance, and the National party will not be spending its money there -- another disadvantage. I hope I am wrong. My post from from July 2006. |
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Post by wyane on Nov 16, 2006 22:53:58 GMT -5
Too bad Mr. Kean jr followed the National Party Line, and didn't run a campaign of his own. Sr. was is strong moderate, and an important, strong, positive bipartisan figure, with an impeccable reputation from his co-charing the 911 commission. Jr. failed to aline, identify and associate himself with these most favored attributes. Jr. did not favor the current Iraq situation, and was not another rubber stamp Bush follower, infact the very opposite, like Kean Sr. Another failure was his lack of overt articulations of his strong anti illegal immigration, no amnesty position. These two differentiations are worth the 6% buy which he unfortunately lost the opportunity to be a respectable Representative of this state in the US Senate. As one who has a propencity to go Dem, you had, and still have my support. Menendez was no choice...and now we're stuck with another creapy phony....  Maybe next time JR, remeber be your own person and listen to the people!!! |
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